Markets react to news, but the biggest moves are shaped by positioning, liquidity, and capital flows. Get analysis that goes beyond the headline — showing what is driving price action, where risks are building, and what matters next across markets.
Evidence-based analysis with clear views, explicit assumptions, and the key variables that matter most.
Gold sits a quarter below its January record and the crowd has the obituary ready. But Warsh only broke the monetary engine of the trade — the structural one, deficits and relentless central-bank buying, was always beyond his reach.
Three times oversubscribed, priced by decree, and bought by funds that have no choice. The structural consequence for passive flows and the capital that has to move whether it wants to or not.
The ten largest companies hold 40.7% of the S&P 500 — highest on record. Markets don't break because they're concentrated. They break when concentration meets a macro shock.
Real yields set the swings; central banks set the floor. The relationship that held for two decades broke in 2025 — and the new buyer is who sets the price at the margin now.
Research evolves as markets evolve.
Members get continuous updates across the major assets I follow—whether I'm currently bullish, neutral, or bearish, what's driving that view, and the conditions that would change it.
Current views across major asset classes, updated as the evidence changes.
Systematic strategy with full entry/exit rules, backtest context, and regime conditions.
Preview free intro →Annotated toolkit with top resources and knowledge for Quants.
Preview free intro →Regular market observations on trending macro, geopolitical, and systematic signals — available to all subscribers.
Read the Notes feed →Free readers see the thesis. Members see how to trade it.
Subscribe →Full archive access from day one.
Subscribe nowor subscribe for free and read the Notes feed